瑞士信贷:2013年中国地产行业投资策略 房地产投资拓展
Our base case for 1H13E housing prices is +5% in the large cities, with
upside risks. We discussed in our July 2012 report (click here) that shortterm
housing prices correlate with liquidity. The liquidity that drove housing
prices higher in 2H12 should continue to do so in 1H13E, with tier 1 cities’
housing prices potentially rising much higher. With CPI rising, however,
China’s 2013E monetary policy may not be as loose as in 2012, and potential
policy risks create uncertainties for the housing price trend in 2H13E.
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